Posted by
Emma Watton on Saturday, July 09, 2011 9:18:46 AM
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. Employment growth ground to a halt in June, with the fewest number Employers Hiring of Workers in nine months, dampening the economy WAS Hopes on the cusp of Regaining momentum in recent months After stumbling.
KEY POINTS: * Nonfarm payrolls rose only 18,000, the reading Weakest Since September, the Labor Department said on Friday, well below economists&&9; expectations for a rise 90.000.
COMMENTS:
MICHAEL STRAUSS, CHIEF ECONOMIST, Commonfund, Wilton, Connecticut
"It Is disappointing. We May Have too much expectations built into it. If You Would Have Asked a month ago When Do We start to see supply channel disruptions thesis alleviated in the Labor market, most people Would not Have Said June and July. The market got a little bit hyped up Hoping That the turn in the Labor Market Would Have Been June.But It&&9;s Not Going To Be Until July.
"When I look at Some of the Subcomponent in the report the biggest thing That we think going forward is changing Is The Manufacturing Sector, Which has-been 13 straight months flat.
"There&&9;s going to Be a market reaction in the equity market today. There&&9;s going to Be a market reaction in general. I think the bigger issue we&&9;re going to IS Have To Wait Another month and it really Should Have Been A July / August event. If the conditions are going to get better, the hint That You Probably Would Need to see a reduction in IS Unemployment initial claims and we are Likely to See That in late July or early August. "
Mohamed El-Erian, CO-CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER AT PACIFIC INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT CO., LTD., NEWPORT BEACH, CALIF.:
"Every aspect of this disappointing report points to the U.S. Facing Unemployment crisis year."
David Semmens, U.S.ECONOMIST, STANDARD CHARTERED, NEW YORK:
"It&&9;s a terrible number, There Is No Good News You Can Glean from it. Chômage It&&9;s driven up and the participation rate Has Gone Down. It shows the Labor Market Is Still lagging economy Improvements in the overalls. I do not think this puts pressure on the Fed to do more, though. It&&9;s a concern, you there&&9;s still aim Some job creation and you&&9;re really seeing softness in the economy Rather Than year outright contraction. I think this shows the outlook for business That Remains Uncertain, goal pickup in the ISM suggests Things Are Improving. I do not think Will it affect the deficit reduction Either Debate. Any Spending Cuts Will Be Aimed at 2013. "
Tom Porcelli, CHIEF ECONOMIST, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, NEW YORK:
"Overall Good There Was nothing about this report and Weakness IS abound.Stood out to me What Is That weekly earnings continue to drop there year-over-year Basis, the diffusion index IS close to break-even, and Temporary Employment continues to shed Workers. All of this paints a negative picture. This view our Confirms That Will the Fed continues to keep rates on hold Into 2012 and if it continued weak Employment Will Be Pushed Out Even Further. "
TERRY SHEEHAN, ECONOMIC ANALYST, STONE & MCCARTHY, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY
"These numbers are very disappointing and indicative of lower job growth That Is just disappointing to see. This puts Fed policy on hold, it Does not Increase the chances of a Third-round of large-scale asset Purchase, Simply Because We do not face the risk of deflation We Did Last Summer. "
SCOTT BROWN, CHIEF ECONOMIST, RAYMOND JAMES, ST. PETERSBURG, FL.:
"It was definitely Weaker Than Anticipated FOLLOWING the ADP numbers.Some anecdotal evidence suggests Things Were not as bad in June. The Market May lag a bit, we aim Certainly Will See a soft patch.
"We&&9;ll see the Markets Digesting the news. The theme has-been the Markets That are downplaying the bad data and embracing the Good News.
"Particularly for the stock market tend to Be it all or nothing. Either the economy IS booming Slowing it&&9;s gold. We Hope that We Will see a second half rebound."
CHRIS RUPKEY, CHIEF FINANCIAL ECONOMIST, BANK OF TOKYO-MITSUBISHI UFJ, NEW YORK:
"It Means the soft patch IS persisting. I guess we Jumped the gun and relied too much on ADP. They Made it one month then this month and miss the spectacular WAS on the hand of ADP. The profession Generally talked Themselves Into believing the May Weakness in private payroll jobs WAS related to the rainy weather on the east and the west coast and the supply disruptions from the quake Japan. That Was not true.The Economy Remains in a soft patch. "
PIERRE ELLIS, SENIOR ECONOMIST, DECISION ECONOMICS, NEW YORK:
"The message on the economy IS Ongoing stagnation payday loans. Income growth IS marginal so There&&9;s no indication of momentum. To the degree That this shifts the long-term outlook for the economy, that&&9;s going to hurt budget negotiations. Republicans Have To Be Careful about Being painted as the bad guys. It&&9;s hard to cut Government Spending When the economy looks as flat as it does. It aussi Weaken the President politically.
"On prospects for Another phase of quantitative easing, the Fed HAS Already Told us That IS the bar high for That.The cost-benefit ratio HAS Become very unfavorable in Their Mind. "
MARRALE MICHAEL, MANAGING DIRECTOR AND HEAD OF SALES TRADING, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, NEW YORK:
"Very disappointing FOLLOWING Obviously the number and ADP Especially in light of the Fact There Was Some short wraps ahead of this number with Some Obvious fear on Behalf of the shorts the number Would Be Much Better-than-expected. The whisper number creeping up Kept over the course of the night and We Were hearing from our European desk That the expectation HAD crept over 150,000. So very disappointing and more from a positioning standpoint Where Some shorts thrown in the towel HAD over the last SEVERAL days and Especially yesterday. I Would expect &&9;em to re-engage on the back of this number. We&&9;ve just about Given yesterday&&9;s rally back.This Will Really Give the shorts in terms of teeth Some re-Engaging. "
SHAUN OSBORNE, SENIOR CURRENCY STRATEGIST, TD SECURITIES, TORONTO:
"The number stinks. There Were a couple of head fakes and ADP with the news that (President) Obama WAS going to make a statement, Which led people to Believe Would we get a number Stronger. Goal IS the dollar rallying, so I think the key here Is That This is a lot of risk-off reaction. We Had Already weak Equity Markets in Europe. We&&9;ve Seen support for euro / dollar around 1.42. Technically Should it go lower, and I think it Will.A lot depends on how Will trade equities Throughout The Day. "
VIMOMBI NSHOM, ECONOMIST, ECONOMICS IFR, A UNIT OF THOMSON REUTERS
"The reluctance of private-sector Employers to create jobs in June, in Conjunction With The Continued Downward Trend government Relating to Employment, jobs Essentially created a flat market last month, with only 18.000 Additional jobs created in the non-farm Sector. This sharply contrasts with Year Earlier estimate of employment (ADP Nonfarm up 157k) as well as recently updated forecasts (market 90k) Seeking a figure That Would confirm a rebound from May&&9;s Originally weak report of 54k jobs created. The only confirmed this report Gives, Is The That statement IS the economy&&9;s recovery far from steadily Improving - That Especially When considering the Employment rate rose (for the Third-month) to 9.2% (with droves leaving the Labor Force 449K).
"June&&9;s payroll IS NOT the result of cut-throat downsizing (only Three Private Sector Contracted) purpose is more so a situation of stalled Hiring. The Private Sector added 57k jobs to the market, led by a 53k gain in services. Goods Producing jobs inched up 4k and Were Held back by a 9k drop in construction. As expected, financial services jobs lost 15k (after May&&9;s gain of 14k).
"Unexpected, and Even More so unwelcome, temp jobs by 12K Fell After May&&9;s fall of 1.7k. Given That temp jobs lead Hiring permanent, this recent string of Decline Does not Give the indication of Employers to hire construing plans. Government jobs Were Reduced by 39k, Which is similar to the 48k in May. "
JOHN CANALLY, ECONOMIST AND INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, LPL FINANCIAL, BOSTON
"You do not want to read too much Into One report.The economy has-been-through this soft spot and Thought It Was Apparently people over yesterday with the aim ADP It Was not over in June. So You Have to Wait Until July When You get a big rebound in auto production.
"I think you go back and retest Probably the low end of the recent range in Treasuries. Next week inflation data You Have, But You Also Have manufacturing data - you&&9;re going to find out next week if we&&9;re getting the rebound Thought everyone in July Would Happen.
"People were bracing for a strong number, got a weak one, and that&&9;s bad news for stocks Usually and good news for Treasuries."
MARKET REACTION: STOCKS: U.S. stock index future Fell sharply BONDS: U.S. Bond Prices rose FOREX: The dollar rose against-the euro
Instant view: Jobs growth slows in June